These are the estimates of leader willingness to use force as estimated by Carter and Smith (2020).

## Format

A data frame with 3409 observations on the following 9 variables.

`obsid`

an observational ID from

`archigos`

`theta1_mean`

the mean simulated M1 theta, as estimated by Carter and Smith (2020)

`theta1_sd`

the standard deviation of simulated M1 thetas

`theta2_mean`

the mean simulated M2 theta, as estimated by Carter and Smith (2020)

`theta2_sd`

the standard deviation of simulated M2 thetas

`theta3_mean`

the mean simulated M3 theta, as estimated by Carter and Smith (2020)

`theta3_sd`

the standard deviation of simulated M3 thetas

`theta4_mean`

the mean simulated M4 theta, as estimated by Carter and Smith (2020)

`theta4_sd`

the standard deviation of simulated M4 thetas

## Details

The letter published by the authors contains more information as to what these thetas refer. The "M1" theta is a variation of the standard Rasch model from the boilerplate information in the LEAD data. The authors consider this to be "theoretically relevant" or "risk-related" as these all refer to conflict or risk-taking. The "M2" theta expands on "M1" by including political orientation and psychological characteristics. "M3" and "M4" expand on "M1" and "M2" by considering all 36 variables in the LEAD data.

The authors construct and include all these measures, though their analyses suggest "M2" is the best-performing measure.