# United States-China GDP and GDP Forecasts, 1960-2050

Source:`R/rd-usa_chn_gdp_forecasts.R`

`usa_chn_gdp_forecasts.Rd`

This is a toy data set to examine the time in which we should expect China
to overtake the United States in total gross domestic product (GDP),
given current trends. It includes an OECD long-term GDP forecast from 2014,
and forecasts from the `forecast`

and `prophet`

packages in R.

## Format

A data frame with 182 observations on the following 12 variables.

`country`

a character vector (United States, China)

`year`

a numeric vector for the year

`p_gdp`

y-hats (forecasted GDP) from a

`prophet`

forecast`p_lo80`

lower bound (80%) of y-hats (forecasted GDP) from a

`prophet`

forecast`p_hi80`

upper bound (80%) of y-hats (forecasted GDP) from a

`prophet`

forecast`gdp`

observed GDP, made available to the World Bank and OECD national accounts data. Available from 1960 to 2019.

`f_gdp`

forecasted GDP from 2020 to 2050, from the

`forecast`

package`f_lo80`

lower bound (80%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the

`forecast`

package`f_hi80`

upper bound (80%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the

`forecast`

package`f_lo95`

lower bound (95%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the

`forecast`

package`f_hi95`

upper bound (95%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the

`forecast`

package`oecd_ltgdpf`

long-term GDP forecast from the OECD via the OECD Outlook No 95 - May 2014

## Source

OECD Outlook No 95 - May 2014 - Long-term baseline projections provided by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

## Details

Forecasts from the `forecast`

package and `prophet`

package are rudimentary and bare minimum forecasts based on previous values
to that point. Notice the `forecast`

forecasts have a prefix of
`f_`

and the `prophet`

forecasts have a prefix of
`p_`

. Forecasts are not meant to be exhaustive (clearly), only
illustrative for in-class discussion about the "Rise of China." Forecasts
made in R on Nov. 20, 2020.