This is a toy data set to examine the time in which we should expect China to overtake the United States in total gross domestic product (GDP), given current trends. It includes an OECD long-term GDP forecast from 2014, and forecasts from the forecast and prophet packages in R.

usa_chn_gdp_forecasts

Format

A data frame with 182 observations on the following 12 variables.

country

a character vector (United States, China)

year

a numeric vector for the year

p_gdp

y-hats (forecasted GDP) from a prophet forecast

p_lo80

lower bound (80%) of y-hats (forecasted GDP) from a prophet forecast

p_hi80

upper bound (80%) of y-hats (forecasted GDP) from a prophet forecast

gdp

observed GDP, made available to the World Bank and OECD national accounts data. Available from 1960 to 2019.

f_gdp

forecasted GDP from 2020 to 2050, from the forecast package

f_lo80

lower bound (80%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the forecast package

f_hi80

upper bound (80%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the forecast package

f_lo95

lower bound (95%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the forecast package

f_hi95

upper bound (95%) forecasted GDP from 2018 to 2050, from the forecast package

oecd_ltgdpf

long-term GDP forecast from the OECD via the OECD Outlook No 95 - May 2014

Source

OECD Outlook No 95 - May 2014 - Long-term baseline projections provided by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Details

Forecasts from the forecast package and prophet package are rudimentary and bare minimum forecasts based on previous values to that point. Notice the forecast forecasts have a prefix of f_ and the prophet forecasts have a prefix of p_. Forecasts are not meant to be exhaustive (clearly), only illustrative for in-class discussion about the "Rise of China." Forecasts made in R on Nov. 20, 2020.